Diabetes Nation
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?This crisis is … the most obvious threat to our national security. |
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America will become plagued by massive incidence of diabetes according to The Institute of Alternate Futures. By 2025 they predict 53.1 million people will have diabetes. That is a 64% increase from 2010. It does not matter what system of public or private healthcare we end up with to say we will have a crisis if this prediction pans out. There is no evidence that Americans are changing behaviors to avoid it so we must assume that the healthcare system will have to deal with it from a manpower and cost of treatment perspective.
The African American community will be particularly hit with almost 20% of adults having diabetes. Hispanics are close at about 17% compared with 15% of the total population. There is no secret as to the cause. Obesity is driving the incidence. Heavier people wear out their ability to produce insulin and reduce the effectiveness of what their pancreas can produce.
What is the annual cost to treat this crisis? The study estimates $514 billion. Does America have the spare cash to treat this level of diabetes? Will the Chinese lend us money to pay for our diabetes epidemic? The human cost is in the horrible effects of diabetes. In 2025 we can expect in that one year: 419,000 deaths from diabetes, 98,000 leg amputations and 83,000 failed kidneys.
Let?s also consider that the senior population will be affected the most. About half will have pre-diabetes. Full blown type 2 diabetes will strike 27% of seniors by 2025. Those golden baby boomer years will not be so wonderful. Obesity also will give us increased heart disease, cancer, and cognitive impairment.
The purpose of the study was to wake us up and take action. DTC Perspectives is convening a special conference this June to discuss this topic. As drug marketers we generally focus on diagnosis and treatment. Certainly better drugs will come along to make treatment more effective. Perhaps new pills will make insulin injections obsolete. The drug companies will be under intense pressure to help with prevention efforts or at least diagnosing at risk patients. They will do this because any prevention effort will identify people who do not know they have diabetes and thus bring new customers.
HBO just did a wonderful four part series on Obesity and its consequences. One part focused on diabetes and the human profiles were touching. Nice people should not have to lose their feet to a preventable condition.
Marketers are going to be busy in the next 20 years fighting diabetes. There is no doubt that Americans are going to have to do more to prevent this disease. Government can only do so much both in terms of education and medical subsidies for poor lifestyle choices. Given the current trend it looks like drug and device makers will have a growing market for test kits, pills, insulin, special foods, prosthetic legs, feet, and wheel chairs. I would say that this crisis is certainly the most obvious threat to our national security. A sick and poor nation is not what America should be. The shame is that it will be our fault, not imposed by other nations or terrorists.
Bob Ehrlich, Chairman
DTC Perspectives, Inc.
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