Sales of New Obesity Drug a Bit Skinny
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?I recommend Vivus start work on DTC sooner than later.? |
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Vivus, maker of weight loss drug Qsymia, has take a big hit on its stock price based on early sales results. Analysts expected a lot more success. Vivus says it is making good headway and that there are issues with formulary coverage and therefore affordability. Qsymia is taking a cautious route to selling the well-reviewed drug. They want opinion leaders to get some practical experience with their patients.
Clearly, Vivus wants to avoid the widespread early use leading to unexpected side-effects that plagued fen-phen. They want physicians to feel safe prescribing this new drug which is quite effective in reducing body weight by 10%.
On the other hand, Vivus needs to start showing accelerating sales. A drug gets one chance to launch and the early impression of it being a disappointment has serious longer term consequences. A stock price that declined from 31 in June to 10 in December is not welcome news to investors.
I predict that for Qsymia to succeed, they will need significant DTC efforts. What better category to advertise than a weight loss pill? The target audience is massive and desperate for a solution to the failed dieting they try repeatedly. Americans have shown no success at changing their diet or exercise regimes. We are getting fatter no matter how many public health initiatives are being tried to break that cycle.
I remain quite optimistic over the long term growth of Qsymia if the initial period of use shows no hidden risks. I would love to get down from 180 pounds to 162, a 10% reduction. That would put me at my wedding weight 32 years ago. I walk 50 miles a week just to maintain 180. Would I like to find a way to do less and use that time for other things? You bet I would.
I recommend Vivus start work on DTC sooner than later. This is such a great category for DTC. Big market, easy to explain benefit, and a desire among doctors to have an alternative to short term diets. Once doctors get comfortable using it, I expect to see them to use it broadly. The more consumers request it, the faster internists and primary care doctors will investigate it and write prescriptions. No one wants this drug widely sold before it has real world use for a reasonable period among the most in need. FDA does not want to oversee another product withdrawal due to side effects.
On the other hand, the health costs of untreated obesity are huge. A ten percent reduction in weight has many positive effects on cholesterol, blood sugar and blood pressure. I recommend Vivus start DTC in 2013 after about a year in market. Once they do, one can expect a huge ROI. I have consulted for many companies where DTC was questionable. Here it is not. Do it and spend heavily is my advice. The world is waiting for a safe pill to reduce weight. Americans are not going to suddenly eat better or exercise more. Any trip to a mall will tell you we are a country of overweight, sedentary people.
Pill taking is not an ideal solution to obesity but we must recognize that Americans will choose a pill over denial of fast food.
Bob Ehrlich, Chairman
DTC Perspectives, Inc.
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